Abu Maigoro
The South West is always leading in struggle for democracy, foremost in advocacy for good governance and uppermost in political awareness. In fact, most of the political gladiators and analysts are based in Lagos. You can’t find equivalent of South West in the degree of democratic value. In the just concluded 2019 presidential elections, the projection from most commentators was that the South west would produce the second highest block of votes for APC after North West. It was confidently prospected APC could win the entire region with large margin. INEC declared Lagos the highest state that collected PVC of more than 5 million close to 70% of the entire south east region but recorded the lowest turnout of just 20% compare to the south east that recorded 30% turnout. What could be the reason behind low turnout of voters and why will APC win with inconvincible margin of just 259,749 votes? At the same time PDP is winning with 1,289,497 margins in the south east.
Senator Ahmad Bola Tinubu the Jagaban, the national leader of APC as the pillar and a captain was expected do more compare to 2015. His legacy remains paramount; his total commitment towards building strong APC and his eminent influence is indubitably noteworthy. He has done a great job in the past even when PDP was at the center he was able to wrestle power and maintain ACN as one party that unite the entire South west political destiny. Some described him as democracy destiny changer. And interestingly, Ahmad Bola Tinubu’s political acolytes are the most favored with the juicy appointments under APC led government. It is very obvious the south west region got the largest social investment beneficiaries and in the area of massive infrastructures development they are incomparable to other region. They enjoy the capital projects well above all. Therefore, much is given and much is expected.
Also the influence of the number 2 citizen professor Yemi Osinbajo can be measured as a reason why APC must win south west with large margin without putting so much stress. Being the first vice president from south west under democratic government, isn’t a pride for Yoruba nation to maintain the level of understanding and trust that could guarantee them the zoning arrangement in 2023?
But how do they vote? For example, Lagos pulled out 580,814 votes for APC about 56.6% while PDP got 448016 votes 43.5%. And in whole south west region APC got 2,036,450 votes 53.2% and PDP got 1,776,701 votes 46%. The South west total votes contributed to the APC was just 13.4% compare to their counterpart in the south east that contributed 15% to the PDP.
Beside the low turnout, I don’t want to believe south west can be preoccupied with a neck to neck contest, the outcome was unbelievable and the results were quite discouraging. Perhaps, the voters vowed to take their decision based on indifference between the two Fulani northerners or probably the APC leaders were reluctant or were not entrusted. It baffled me so much when APC could not get more than 1 million votes in Lagos upon all mighty factors and actors. Surprisingly, north central came as rescuer that saves APC from crumble with 2,465,599 votes about 16.2% much higher than the almighty south west. I thought north central was going to be 50/50 contest considering the civil unrest between farmers and herders which gave the opposition PDP the fortune to castigate APC government and based their campaign on the security situations. Even with the absent of total peace, less capital projects and inadequate juicy appointments, north central was hopeful to give APC 2,465,599 votes about 55% of the the total votes in the region with a margin of 479,292 vote.
The under performance by the APC in the south west is an indication the leaders of APC derailed off track from the course of political alliance.
My fear is, how this political alliance between the APC north and south west can continue beyond 2019 when PMB will not be on the ballot. The real danger is when voters in the north take their revenge in 2023 and south east maintain their position of being PDP stronghold.
Abu Maigoro writes from Jos.
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