Martha Udom
Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.89% year-on-year in real terms in the first quarter of 2026, up from 3.13% in the corresponding period of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The figures featured prominently at the 32nd Nigerian Economic Summit in Abuja, where President Bola Tinubu, represented by Vice President Kashim Shettima, defended his administration’s economic reforms and argued that they were necessary to address longstanding structural challenges.
“We came to rewrite the story of a nation that has performed below its potential for far too long,” Tinubu said, adding that the decisions taken since 2023 were necessary to avert fiscal collapse.
The Q1 growth figure followed a further acceleration to 4.43% in Q2 2026, according to the NBS. Separately, the World Bank’s October 2026 Nigeria Development Update, titled Beyond the Federal Purse: How Higher Revenues Reshaped State Priorities, reported that Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.2% in the first half of 2026, compared with 3.9% in the corresponding period of 2025.
The World Bank report also found that federation revenues increased by 69% in real terms between 2023 and 2025. Nigeria’s external reserves rose from $45.5 billion at the end of 2025 to $53.8 billion by the end of August 2026, according to figures cited in the report.
Tinubu also cited the NBS figures showing that the non-oil sector accounted for 96.08% of real GDP in Q1 2026. He further highlighted capital importation of $10.37 billion during the quarter, an increase of 83.83% from the $5.64 billion recorded in Q1 2025.
The administration has pointed to easing inflation as evidence of improving economic conditions. However, lower inflation does not mean that prices have fallen; it means that prices are increasing at a slower rate. Based on the rebased and rescaled consumer price index series, Nigeria’s year-on-year inflation rate declined from 24.48% in January 2025 to 15.15% in December 2025.
Despite the improvements in key economic indicators, the World Bank reported that poverty had stabilised for the first time since 2019. It also stressed the need for stronger job creation and more effective public spending to translate improved economic conditions into better living standards. Many households continue to face pressure from high food prices and the effects of earlier price increases.
Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, Taiwo Oyedele, warned that reversing major reforms, including petrol subsidy removal and foreign exchange unification, would undermine investor confidence and threaten jobs.
Although rising GDP growth, higher revenues and increased capital inflows point to improvements in Nigeria’s economic performance, the sustainability of these gains will depend on whether they translate into more jobs, affordable food, improved purchasing power and more effective public spending by state governments.
